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Business Cycle Wikipedia

For instance, shedding a job because of recession can lead to high levels of debt or the loss of key belongings similar to a house or a automobile. In addition, if persons are unemployed for long durations of time, they could find it difficult to keep their work expertise sharp, and they might find it troublesome to search out another job. Facts and challenges from the nice recession for forecasting and macroeconomic modeling. Comparing alternative predictors based mostly on large-panel dynamic factor models.

At this point, the economy experiences adverse economic progress, as the manufacturing of products and companies decreases and wages attain their lowest level. Regardless of the severity of a business cycle, the trough is at all times the bottom point in relation to financial growth. So, financial growth normally signifies that two key economic indicators are increasing—economic output and employment.

This specification affords a direct method to incorporate the potential autocorrelation of the dependent variable. It is easy to implement in practice since it is unnecessary to acquire real-time information on the recession dummy variable. Further, the lagged chance time period permits the shocks within the different explanatory variables to be carried over to the next interval, providing smoother forecasts. In later sections, we construct Figs.2, three, four, 5 and 6 by using this new target variable Yt+N and the information contained in a lot of financial and monetary variables to mannequin and forecast recessions.

Business Cycle

According to Keynesian economics, fluctuations in mixture demand trigger the economic system to return to brief run equilibrium at ranges which may be different from the complete employment price of output. These fluctuations specific themselves as the noticed business cycles. Keynesian fashions don’t necessarily indicate periodic business cycles. However, easy Keynesian fashions involving the interplay of the Keynesian multiplier and accelerator give rise to cyclical responses to initial shocks. Paul Samuelson’s “oscillator model” is meant to account for business cycles due to the multiplier and the accelerator.

The so-called Juglar cycle has usually been thought to be the true, or main, economic cycle, but several smaller cycles have additionally been identified. According to this theory, the smaller cycles typically coincide with modifications in business inventories, lasting an average of forty months. Other small cycles outcome from modifications in the demand for and provide of specific agricultural merchandise such as hogs, cotton, and beef.

The full record of variables and related transformations can be found upon request. The effect of the pandemic on Nigeria was not as harsh as IMF anticipated. Subsequently, by 2021 the IMF assumes a 1.5% growth in the nation’s economy. Yet, Nigeria’s economy contracted by virtually 1.92% within the second and third quarter of 2020 amidst the Covid 19 Pandemic. According to Reuters, this trashed the nation’s GDP that grew by almost 2.2% in 2019, after recovering from 2016’s contraction.

This research uses the proposed goal variable to explore concurrently the three aforementioned channels to forecast U.S. recessions. To probe channel or , the present recession forecasting literature relies …

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Business Cycle Statistics Denmark

The Council performs an analogous function to the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee in the United States. The Council is comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists active within the area. Members of the Council take part in their personal capacities, and the views collectively expressed don’t symbolize these of any establishment or client.

Over the same time-frame, each occurrence of an inverted yield curve has been adopted by recession as declared by the NBER business cycle courting committee. The fluctuations in wages are nearly the same as within the degree of employment , for when the economy is at high employment, employees are in a place to demand rises in wages, whereas in durations of excessive unemployment, wages are most likely to fall. According to Goodwin, when unemployment and business profits rise, the output rises. When the depression stage reaches its lowest point, a business cycle enters the trough stage.

During a recession period, the lagged recession dummy is 1 and it can dominate different explanatory variables in projecting the state of the economic system, thus creating a false impression of the performance of the in any other case weak predictors in the model. Modern economic history has recorded a quantity of intervals of adverse occasions, typically known as depressions, throughout which the business economy was marked by sudden inventory market declines, industrial bankruptcies, financial institution failures, and mounting unemployment. Such crises had been once appeared upon as pathological incidents or catastrophes in economic life, somewhat than as a standard a half of it. The following examples characterize some of the makes an attempt theorists have made to clarify and predict business cycles. Economists of the heterodox Austrian School argue that business cycles are caused by extreme issuance of credit by banks in fractional reserve banking methods. Eventually, the increase cannot be sustained and is followed by a “bust” during which the malinvestments are liquidated and the money provide contracts.

This caused economists to move away from viewing business cycles as a cycle that wanted to be explained and instead viewing their apparently cyclical nature as a methodological artefact. This means that what look like cyclical phenomena can truly be explained as simply random events which are fed into a easy linear mannequin. Thus business cycles are basically random shocks that common out over time. Mainstream economists have built models of business cycles based mostly the thought that they’re caused by random shocks. There has been some resurgence of neoclassical approaches within the form of actual business cycle principle. Business cycles in OECD countries after World War II have been generally extra restrained than the earlier business cycles.

Business Cycle

An correct forecast of financial outlook is important for practitioners similar to bankers and fund managers to make well timed investment decisions and for policymakers similar to central bankers to implement preemptive policies. If a recession can be accurately predicted, selections may be adjusted accordingly upfront. Most main economies skilled maturing tendencies of their business cycles because of excessive …

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Glossary:business Cycle Statistics Defined

For the in- and out-of-sample analyses, we consider completely different lags, from one to 12, and search for the optimum lags (i.e., those who generate the lowest QPS for the whole sample period). Keynesian Economic TheoryKeynesian Economics is a theory that relates the entire spending with inflation and output in an economic system. It suggests that growing authorities expenditure and lowering taxes will end in elevated market demand and pull up the financial system out of depression.

Business Cycle

A recession is a major decline normally economic exercise extending over a time frame. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of economic contraction constitute a recession. In summary, AR-Logit-Factor-MIDAS largely dominates the opposite models when utilized to the standard goal variable, aside from the forecast horizon of 12 months.

In this period, the economic cycle – no much less than the problem of depressions – was twice declared useless. The first declaration was within the late Nineteen Sixties, when the Phillips curve was seen as being able to steer the economy. However, this was adopted by stagflation in the 1970s, which discredited the idea. The second declaration was in the early 2000s, following the stability and development within the 1980s and Nineteen Nineties in what got here to be often identified as The Great Moderation.

The Business Cycle follows adjustments in inventory prices which are mostly caused by external components corresponding to socioeconomic situations, inflation, trade rates. Intellectual capital does not affect an organization stock’s current earnings. Recent analysis employing spectral analysis has confirmed the presence of Kondratiev waves on the earth GDP dynamics at an acceptable level of statistical significance. Korotayev & Tsirel additionally detected shorter business cycles, relationship the Kuznets to about 17 years and calling it the third sub-harmonic of the Kondratiev, that means that there are three Kuznets cycles per Kondratiev.

The examine of macroeconomic fluctuations assumes that the conduct of the entire can’t be lowered to the sum of the components . However, ignoring these effects as a end result of they don’t have the identical degree of empirical certainty as a instantly noticed microeconomic impact can result in severe policy mistakes. During the typical early-cycle phase, the financial system bottoms out and picks up steam until it exits recession then begins the recovery as exercise accelerates. Inflationary pressures are sometimes low, financial coverage is accommodative, and the yield curve is steep. Economically sensitive asset lessons corresponding to stocks are likely to expertise their finest performance of the cycle.…

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Composite Business Cycle Indicators

Prior to that point classical economics had both denied the existence of business cycles, blamed them on exterior factors, notably struggle, or only studied the lengthy run. Sismondi discovered vindication in the Panic of 1825, which was the primary unarguably international economic disaster, occurring in peacetime. Business cycle fluctuations are often characterised by basic upswings and downturns in a span of macroeconomic variables.

Over the same timeframe, each occurrence of an inverted yield curve has been followed by recession as declared by the NBER business cycle dating committee. The fluctuations in wages are almost the same as in the degree of employment , for when the financial system is at excessive employment, workers are in a place to demand rises in wages, whereas in intervals of high unemployment, wages are most likely to fall. According to Goodwin, when unemployment and business earnings rise, the output rises. When the despair stage reaches its lowest level, a business cycle enters the trough stage.

Business Cycle

Commodity value shocks are thought of to be a major driving pressure of the US business cycle. House prices and unemployment moved from the green to the orange quadrant. In the course of July, new knowledge have turn out to be available for all month-to-month indicators. As a end result, the distribution of the indications across and throughout the quadrants has changed.

Most economists believe that enhancements in monetary coverage, particularly the tip of overexpansion followed by deliberate contraction, have been a major issue as well. Economists use the time period business cycle to describe the ups and downs, or fluctuations, in an economy. More particularly, the time period refers to the fluctuating levels of financial activity over a time period measured from the start of 1 recession to the beginning of the subsequent.

In explicit, AR-Logit-Factor-MIDAS reveals a reasonable improvement within the AUC compared with ST-Probit-YS, ST-Probit-YS-EI, and AR-Probit-YS. The purpose behind this trade cycle fluctuation was the autumn in demand and costs of crude oil globally. The lockdown and Covid measures imposed in many nations hit exhausting.

During a recession period, the lagged recession dummy is 1 and it could dominate other explanatory variables in projecting the state of the economy, thus making a false impression of the performance of the in any other case weak predictors within the mannequin. Modern economic historical past has recorded a quantity of periods of difficult instances, typically referred to as depressions, during which the business economic system was marked by sudden inventory market declines, business bankruptcies, bank failures, and mounting unemployment. Such crises have been as soon as looked upon as pathological incidents or catastrophes in economic life, somewhat than as a traditional a half of it. The following examples characterize some of the makes an attempt theorists have made to elucidate and predict business cycles. Economists of the heterodox Austrian School argue that business cycles are attributable to excessive issuance of credit by banks in fractional reserve banking systems. Eventually, the boom cannot be sustained and is adopted by …

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On Business Cycle Forecasting Frontiers Of Business Research In China Full Textual Content

The amplitude of the variations in financial output depends on the level of the investment, for funding determines the level of combination output , and is determined by aggregate demand . This method makes it clear that the amplitude of the business cycle and the level of inequalities inside a particular financial system are basically intertwined. For this reason, this strategy allows studying some important financial policy points that can not in any other case be addressed.

The forecasting efficiency of the other models is unsatisfactory. Both ST-Probit-MCF and ST-Probit-YS predict excessive recession chances only within the later intervals of the recessions. Although AR-Probit-YS can issue sturdy recession indicators a few months before the height of the business cycle, it tends to supply alerts indicating that the recession will finish quickly too early. Overall, the above outcomes suggest that the proposed model generates comparatively extra accurate recession forecasts with smaller forecast errors. We then examine whether or not the model can accurately predict the turning points of business cycles.

A good forecasting model can flag a strong recession sign before the onset of a recession and indicate a weak recession signal shortly after the top of a recession. Figure2 compares the expected chance of a recession occurring throughout the next six months generated by AR-Logit-Factor-MIDAS with the precise recession durations. For the last three recession intervals, the proposed mannequin can predict a strong recession signal one to 4 months upfront of the onset of each recession interval. The proposed mannequin can even predict an almost-zero recession chance within the month right after the tip of each recession interval. As previously famous, the proposed model combines the three modeling channels described in Key methodologies in recession forecasting section into a unified framework.

Business Cycle

FREE INVESTMENT BANKING COURSELearn the foundation of Investment banking, monetary modeling, valuations and extra. Fiscal PolicyFiscal policy refers to government measures utilizing tax income and expenditure as a tool to achieve financial goals. Aggregate DemandAggregate Demand is the overall demand for all the goods and the providers in a rustic and is expressed as the total sum of money which is exchanged for such items and services. The risk and antagonistic results of the phases may be mitigated via properly devising monetary and fiscal policies. Wieland J. F., 2016, “Are adverse supply shocks expansionary at the zero lower bound? Wieland J., 2017, “Are unfavorable provide shocks expansionary at the zero decrease bound?

Is that the number of variables included within the forecasting model is limited. The use of some explanatory variables stems from comparatively uncommon and quick time series of recessionary periods. As a outcome, the inclusion of more variables, albeit properly motivated, might lead to overfitting. British banking house of Baring Brothers failed, partly due to a revolution in Argentina. English pig-iron manufacturing fell from eight.three million tons in 1889 to 6.7 million tons in 1892, and unemployment elevated. That despair might have been much less severe however for the worldwide financial crisis, particularly intense within the United …

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Business Cycle Council C D Howe Institute Canada Economic System News Canadian Government Policy

Recovery continues until the economic system returns to steady growth levels. C. Mitchell, Measuring business cycles, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946. Additionally, because the 1960s neoclassical economists have performed down the power of Keynesian insurance policies to manage an financial system.

The examine of macroeconomic fluctuations assumes that the behavior of the whole can’t be decreased to the sum of the parts . However, ignoring these effects as a outcome of they don’t have the identical diploma of empirical certainty as a immediately observed microeconomic impact can lead to critical policy errors. During the standard early-cycle section, the economic system bottoms out and picks up steam till it exits recession then begins the restoration as activity accelerates. Inflationary pressures are usually low, monetary policy is accommodative, and the yield curve is steep. Economically delicate asset lessons such as shares tend to experience their finest efficiency of the cycle.

Business Cycle

The key features of rising market business cycles are then proven to be consistent with this underlying earnings course of in an in any other case standard equilibrium mannequin. Not solely does our mannequin consistently generate more correct recession forecasts over numerous time horizons , but it also sets off stronger and earlier signals for the turning factors of business cycles. The out‐of-sample analyses point out that the proposed model’s forecast error, as measured by the quadratic chance rating and log chance score , is 20%–50% decrease than that of static Logit models which do not handle any of these three channels. Compared with present models that incorporate channel or , the proposed model has a 10%–40% smaller forecast error. The out-of-sample results additional show that the model can generate sturdy recession indicators one to 4 months earlier than the onset of previous recessions.

For instance, shedding a job because of recession can result in high ranges of debt or the lack of key assets similar to a home or a automobile. In addition, if people are unemployed for long intervals of time, they might find it troublesome to keep their work skills sharp, they usually may find it troublesome to search out one other job. Facts and challenges from the good recession for forecasting and macroeconomic modeling. Comparing various predictors based mostly on large-panel dynamic issue fashions.

Reis R., 2017, “What is mistaken with macroeconomics”, CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 6446. Information supplied on this doc is for informational and educational functions solely. In the occasion of dissension amongst Council members, a easy plurality of votes is used. Votes are subject to a quorum of a minimum of half of the members of the Council.

This course of continues as lengthy as financial circumstances are favorable for enlargement. Post-Keynesian economist Hyman Minsky has proposed an explanation of cycles founded on fluctuations in credit score, interest rates and monetary frailty, called the Financial Instability Hypothesis. In an expansion period, interest rates are low and corporations easily borrow money from banks to invest.…

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Business Cycle Clock

The National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee has been dating the us expansions and recessions for the previous 60 years. The members of the committee reach a subjective consensus about business cycle turning factors, and this choice is mostly accepted because the official courting of the U.S. business cycle. When it comes to the economy, nonetheless, most individuals would prefer to keep away from a wild journey.

While a particular variable may be revised up or down in subsequent months, it’s unlikely that all the variables are revised in the same direction. It is reasonable to count on that some may be revised up, whereas others may be revised down. With the large number of explanatory variables utilized in our model estimation and forecasting, the distortions in different instructions due to the information revisions of various variables are probably to cancel out each other. Moreover, Chen et al. make an identical argument, whereas Clements and Fossati present additional supporting proof. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER declares the start and finish dates of U.S. recessions recorded in months and quarters. We use month-to-month NBER information on the recession dates to assemble the time sequence of both the proposed goal variable, Yt+N, and the traditional goal variable, yt+N, for different values of N, from one to 12 months.

As a end result, recessions occurred regularly, and a few were large and a few had been small. Increases and new technologies are discovered, could be maintained eternally. There is no purpose why a time of full employment has to give method to both an inflationary growth or a recession.

More latest contributions similar to Jeanne and Korinek have appeared more closely on the welfare influence of the feedbackloop. As a consequence, a benevolent policymaker could also be prepared to limit agents’ borrowing ex ante in order to limit the chance of fireside sale. This concept supplies one possible justification for imposing a “macroprudential” regulation, along with the more traditional banking regulation. In this part, there’s a turnaround in the economic system, and it begins to recuperate from the adverse growth price. Demand begins to pick up as a result of low costs and, consequently, provide begins to increase.

Since the 1940s, following the Keynesian revolution, most governments of developed nations have seen the mitigation of the business cycle as part of the responsibility of presidency, underneath the rubric of stabilization policy. The partisan business cycle suggests that cycles outcome from the successive elections of administrations with different policy regimes. Regime A adopts expansionary insurance policies, leading to development and inflation, however is voted out of workplace when inflation becomes unacceptably excessive. The replacement, Regime B, adopts contractionary policies lowering inflation and progress, and the downwards swing of the cycle. It is voted out of office when unemployment is simply too excessive, being changed by Party A. Exports and imports are large elements of an economy’s mixture expenditure, especially one that is oriented toward worldwide commerce.

The Great …

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Real Time Evaluation Of The U S Business Cycle Federal Reserve Financial Institution Of Atlanta

Since the Nineteen Forties, following the Keynesian revolution, most governments of developed nations have seen the mitigation of the business cycle as part of the accountability of presidency, underneath the rubric of stabilization coverage. The partisan business cycle means that cycles outcome from the successive elections of administrations with totally different policy regimes. Regime A adopts expansionary insurance policies, resulting in development and inflation, but is voted out of workplace when inflation becomes unacceptably high. The alternative, Regime B, adopts contractionary insurance policies decreasing inflation and progress, and the downwards swing of the cycle. It is voted out of office when unemployment is simply too high, being replaced by Party A. Exports and imports are massive parts of an economy’s combination expenditure, particularly one that’s oriented towards worldwide trade.

FREE INVESTMENT BANKING COURSELearn the muse of Investment banking, financial modeling, valuations and extra. Fiscal PolicyFiscal coverage refers to authorities measures utilizing tax revenue and expenditure as a device to achieve economic goals. Aggregate DemandAggregate Demand is the general demand for all the products and the providers in a rustic and is expressed as the total amount of money which is exchanged for such goods and companies. The risk and adverse results of the phases may be mitigated through wisely devising monetary and monetary policies. Wieland J. F., 2016, “Are negative supply shocks expansionary on the zero lower bound? Wieland J., 2017, “Are negative provide shocks expansionary at the zero lower bound?

Inflationary pressures usually start to rise, monetary coverage turns into tighter, and the yield curve experiences some flattening. Economically sensitive asset classes are most likely to continue benefiting from a rising financial system, however their relative advantage narrows. Generally, among asset courses, shares are more volatile than bonds.or short-term instruments and may decline considerably in response to antagonistic issuer, political, regulatory, market, or financial developments. Although the bond market is also unstable, lower-quality debt securities, together with leveraged loans, typically offer higher yields in comparability with investment-grade securities, but also involve higher risk of default or worth modifications.

Business Cycle

StagflationStagflation is an economic situation the place stagnation coincides with inflation. Ultimately the economic system has a self-healing mechanism and doesn’t require authorities intervention. The recession of 1900 was adopted by an unusually vigorous upsurge in virtually all the Western economies. Our editors will evaluate what you’ve submitted and decide whether to revise the article. Britannica celebrates the centennial of the Nineteenth Amendment, highlighting suffragists and history-making politicians. Fidelity Institutional® Comprehensive insights, proprietary analysis, a broad funding lineup, and diagnostic instruments to assist you meet your purchasers’ wants and maintain your corporation thriving.

It explains the enlargement and contraction in financial activity that an economy experiences over time. Mainstream economics views business cycles as primarily “the random summation of random causes”. In 1927, Eugen Slutzky noticed that summing random numbers, such because the last digits of the Russian state lottery, could generate patterns akin to that we see in business cycles, an remark that has since been repeated many times.…

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Business Cycle Clock

The key features of rising market business cycles are then proven to be consistent with this underlying revenue process in an in any other case standard equilibrium model. Not only does our model persistently generate more accurate recession forecasts over numerous time horizons , nevertheless it also sets off stronger and earlier indicators for the turning factors of business cycles. The out‐of-sample analyses indicate that the proposed model’s forecast error, as measured by the quadratic chance score and log probability rating , is 20%–50% decrease than that of static Logit models which don’t handle any of these three channels. Compared with current models that incorporate channel or , the proposed mannequin has a 10%–40% smaller forecast error. The out-of-sample results additional present that the mannequin can generate strong recession indicators one to four months before the onset of past recessions.

Business Cycle

The declines in industrial production in the recessions of 1920, 1929, and 1937 were larger than in any recessions within the pre– World War I and post–World War II intervals. A key think about these excessive fluctuations was the replacement, by the 1920s, of a few of the private-sector institutions that had helped the us economy weather prewar fluctuations with authorities institutions that were not but fully practical. The historical past of the interwar era is perhaps best described as a painful learning period for the Federal Reserve. The downturn of the mid-1940s clearly displays the effect of World War II. The warfare generated an unbelievable increase in economic activity, as manufacturing surged in response to huge authorities spending. The finish of wartime spending led to an equally spectacular drop in industrial manufacturing because the economic system returned to more regular levels of labor and capital utilization. For the 2001 recession, AR-Logit-Factor-MIDAS and ST-Probit-YS-EI display related forecasting performance possibly because this recession was pushed by each the bursting of the IT bubble in 2000 and the terrorist attacks on September eleven, 2001.

The National Bureau of Economic Research establishes the dates of each business cycle based mostly on extensive financial research. In almost every case, the NBER sets the dates for every stage of a business cycle on reflection, usually months or more than a year after the actual fact. This contains normal evaluation of the business cycle in macroeconomics. The visual course permits one to compare a current financial cycle with earlier economic cycles, in regard to how briskly the change happens and the size of the fluctuations compared to underlying tendencies.

This process continues as lengthy as financial situations are favorable for enlargement. Post-Keynesian economist Hyman Minsky has proposed a proof of cycles founded on fluctuations in credit, rates of interest and monetary frailty, called the Financial Instability Hypothesis. In an growth period, interest rates are low and firms easily borrow cash from banks to invest.

This was significantly true during the Golden Age of Capitalism (1945/50–1970s), and the period 1945–2008 did not expertise a global downturn until the Late-2000s recession. The despair stage begins as soon as …

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On Business Cycle Forecasting Frontiers Of Business Research In China Full Text

Helping to make these two things happen is part of the role of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has been mandated by Congress to promote most employment and worth stability—it’s known as the Fed’s dual mandate. During a recession, output is under capacity, and there are heaps of unemployed workers. To assist the economic system grow, the Federal Reserve uses its financial policy tools to lower rates of interest. Lower interest rates encourage shoppers to borrow money—for example, to purchase vehicles or properties, and companies to take a position and increase.

Business Cycle

Since the Nineteen Sixties, economists like Nobel Laureates Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps have made floor in their arguments that inflationary expectations negate the Phillips curve in the long run. The stagflation of the Nineteen Seventies provided putting help for their theories while proving a dilemma for Keynesian policies, which appeared to necessitate both expansionary policies to mitigate recession and contractionary insurance policies to scale back inflation. There have been nice increases in productivity, industrial production and real per capita product throughout the period from 1870 to 1890 that included the Long Depression and two different recessions. There had been also significant will increase in productiveness within the years leading as much as the Great Depression.

Among these points are the mixture demand results of redistributive policies , which is the main target of the current work of McKay and Reis . Emerging market business cycles exhibit strongly countercyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds earnings volatility, and “sudden stops” in capital inflows. Nevertheless, we present that a normal mannequin characterizes both types of markets.

The upward slope of the business cycle known as financial enlargement. That is, extra goods and companies are being produced within the financial system. Dynamic Probit models and monetary variables in recession forecasting. Forecasting U.S. recessions with varied threat elements and dynamic Probit models. A typical business cycle persists for 5.5 years on average; however, it might be shorter or longer than this.

15The current empirical literature has largely relied on two distinct identification methods to reply this query. The first technique is to give consideration to a specific sort of presidency spending shocks that are arguably not themselves brought on by modifications in GDP. The most common method to proceed is to assume about as exogenous shocks the increase in military expenditure as a outcome of sudden, unanticipated deteriorations of the geopolitical context.

Recovery continues till the economic system returns to regular growth levels. C. Mitchell, Measuring business cycles, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946. Additionally, because the Nineteen Sixties neoclassical economists have performed down the ability of Keynesian insurance policies to handle an economic system.

For numerous indicators, the month-on-month change was drastic to the extent that they no longer fall within the coordinates of the BCT visualisation. The coordinates have now been clipped on the edges to find a way to present the position of the symptoms however. According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic outlook …

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